Until the final hours of the Netherlands’ Oct. 29 election, Polymarket traders were convinced Geert Wilders’ nationalist Partij voor de Vrijheid (Party for Freedom) would cruise to victory. The market barely budged as Rob Jetten’s social liberal Democraten 66 (Democrats 66) climbed in every major poll. Then, within minutes of the first exit poll, D66 […]
Kalshi is pulling ahead in the prediction market race, capturing a dominant share of trading volume even as competitors like Polymarket push into regulated U.S. territory. From Sept. 11 to 17, Kalshi accounted for 62% of total volume in the on-chain prediction market sector, according to data from Dune Analytics, while Polymarket’s stood at 37%. […]
Newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who recently won a leadership contest of the Liberal Party to replace Justin Trudeau, has dramatically increased his odds of winning the next federal election in the eyes of Polymarket bettors. (Polymarket) Carney now has a 49% chance of winning the next Canadian election, compared to 26% a […]
There’s a 70% chance that the trade war between Canada and the U.S. will be over by May, according to odds on a Polymarket contract on the topic, as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Fox Business that U.S. President Donald Trump was open to negotiation. (Polymarket) On Tuesday morning, Canada and Mexico faced the implementation […]